China's low-end manufacturing sector is shifting to southeast Asia, with high-end reshoring to the advanced economies
As the Chinese economy enters a new development cycle in 2016, people who do industry are increasingly feeling the difficulties of making profits and even surviving, and the pressure is increasing. Are they not working hard enough? It isn't. Is this the coldest time of winter? No, it's just beginning to winter. Because a powerful force is exerting its great influence, and it will last for at least 20 to 30 years. This power will make some countries stronger, and some countries will be caught up in the economic crisis.
This power is the world's fifth largest industrial transfer.
Let's just briefly review:
1. The first industrial transfer
In the 1860s, Britain began a roaring industrial revolution by copying Chinese textile technology. The industrial revolution has gradually made Britain a "workshop of the world". It needs to plunder cheap resources from the world and also open up a wide market. In the 1840s, Britain began to transfer industries, Britain was the exporter and the United States was the recipient. This is the first industrial transfer. The transfer of the industry made the United States the ultimate in the United States.
2. The second industry transfer
In the 1950s, the cold war was in full swing, and the United States began to shift its industries to Japan and the former federal Germany in order to foster its own Allies and to curb the communist bloc. The outbreak of the Korean war, has formed "the special economy", not only accelerated the pace of the United States to Japanese industry transfer, and optimize the structure of the transferred industries, achievements in the development of Japan and the former federal republic of Germany, Japan and the former federal republic of Germany to become the new "world factory".
3. The third industry transfer
When Japan's economy grew to a certain extent, it faced the same perplexity that Britain had before: scarce resources and narrow markets. This has triggered a new round of industrial transfers. In the 1960 s, Japan began to labor-intensive industries transfer to the Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea, with the upgrading of industry transfer, and gradually extended to the capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries such as cars, electronic, this makes the "Asian tigers" as new world factory.
4. The fourth industrial transfer
The four Asian tigers are faced with a shortage of resources and narrow markets. With their rapid rise, they are desperate for cheap resources and a wide market. And China's reform and opening up offer this opportunity. This has made China a new "workshop of the world", making it a particularly labor-intensive industry for the United States, Europe, Japan and the Asian tigers.
China has been the biggest beneficiary of this shift, while Japan has been in the so-called "recession for 20 years" since the 1990s. One of the important reasons that Japan is the second and third industry of big transfer important exporter, when the "Asian tigers", China catch up in technology and so on various aspects, such as, squeezed the Japanese industry development space, make Japan's dominant position.
5. The fifth industrial transfer
The industry shift started in 2012 (2012 was an important turning point for the Chinese economy) and will last 20 to 30 years or more, according to the law of big industrial transfers.
After the reform and opening up, China's manufacturing industry rose rapidly and technology developed rapidly, especially from 1992 to 2002, which made a large number of outstanding manufacturing enterprises stand out. But, in 2003, after the real estate as the pillar industry, China's industrial structure changed: from the pursuit of progress, technology, started to revolve around real estate energy-consuming low-end industry development, the real estate industry to become the most profitable industry, precious resources and personnel from manufacturing dense concentration to the real estate sector, not only caused serious excess of low-end industries such as steel, cement, also make the opportunity cost of China's manufacturing industry more and more high, many people turn off the factory added to the queue property speculation - do factory fry a suite to earn more than ten years, is the most clear value guidance signal.
This has given China's manufacturing industry no longer an advantage. High housing prices have led to a sharp rise in the cost of production, operation and living in China, and many low-end manufacturing industries have started to shift to southeast Asian countries.
Headed by Japan, the United States, on the other hand, the rapid development of robot technology, and the 3 d printing technology, led by the United States, such as the development of advanced technology, reduce the use of labor, which greatly make up the disadvantage of high labor costs in developed countries, leading to a high-end industry from China to the United States, Japan, Europe and other developed economies.
That is to say, the fifth is China's industry of big transfer exporting countries, and the output is double line: a low-end industries related to southeast Asia countries, high-end industry to the United States, Japan, Europe and other developed economies.
According to the law of industrial transfer, the duration of this industry shift is at least 20 years. This will have a profound impact on China's future development, and we can refer to the dilemma that Japan faces in two major industrial transfers, to find out the challenges we are facing.
, of course, we have a news broadcast reveal positive force, the governments at various levels have to maintain the real estate industry standing of rich experience, we have every reason to believe that China will be able to perfect posture to meet, no matter how severe challenges, so as to make the Chinese in this vigorous industry shift, not only damaged can be beneficiaries, this is my dream in China.