Get out of China construction machinery development mistake
2016 is undoubtedly the winter of China's engineering machinery, but it is at this time that we consider the best time to consider the future of China's engineering machinery.
Innovation is the only way out of development, but innovation must be stimulated by actual market demand.
Therefore, first of all, we need to redefine the position of Chinese engineering in the world market, without a promising market position, without the need for innovation input. Secondly, we need to make clear the most pressing problems before us; Secondly, we need to present solutions to today's problems in the context of today, not to dwell on the past, nor to look forward to the future. This paper hopes to discuss these issues with all the people in the engineering machinery industry chain to find a bright spring in Chinese engineering machinery.
China construction machinery market relocation
Now the world engineering machinery enters a misunderstanding, on the one hand the more impoverished place, the cost of the construction machinery is more expensive, on the other hand everyone knows "to want to be rich, the road first." Engineering machinery is a pioneer of social development. Without the entry of engineering machinery, there can be no social development. The key market for the next generation of engineering machinery must be along the road, with a population of 3 billion. But the poorer and more expensive the value orientation, undoubtedly is in restraining the growth of this market. In addition to other political and economic reasons, the author thinks that the engineer should reflect at least three reasons:
The separation of mainstream market and main market of engineering machinery
China has been the world's largest market for excavators over the past decade, or the main market. But the research and development of the mainstream technology of excavators is not in China, but in developed countries. As a result, the more advanced machinery is the further away from the main market, and the price of the old machinery is not reduced.
For example, European and American days have long begun to focus on engineering machinery emissions and energy conservation issues, but their solutions mainly revolve around the engine. The idea is normal for them because they produce their own engines, and improvements can increase their competitiveness. China has no engine manufacturing technology, and the more complex the engine technology, the higher the cost. When the One Belt And One Road market is truly open, the problem will become more and more serious. Because they can't afford the engine, they can't afford oil.
But if China is the mainstream market, the same emission problem can have other solutions. The separation of mainstream market and main market leads to the misleading of the technological development direction of engineering machinery and the growth of the main market.
The construction speed and the mainstream model reflect
While we are marveling at the speed of construction in China, we should also note that the construction cost is actually increasing exponentially with the construction speed. Because the construction speed is quick, is sure to use heavy machinery, which means to try to do heavy work with physically strong hercules, and the construction of a complete process, actually need to be more is small, the hercules took a lot of money, there is a bunch of cheap coolie hard finishing.
When the economy is on the line, the problem is not significant, but when it comes down to the next stage, it must be the hercules who are the first to be eliminated. The market for small, non-mainstream excavators is now growing, and the market for this kind of problem is the fact that the vast and vast machinery of the past is losing its job. But for engineering robots, it is not the small machinery that continues to produce the cheap, but how to make the small machinery powerful and replace the mainstream of hercules.
Suspicion of traditional mechanical methods and mainstream techniques
The excavator accounts for 50% of the total market of the world construction machinery, which is a symbol of the development degree of engineering machinery. This is because excavators are actually a kind of all-purpose machine on the construction site. Some people say excavators are a model of "man-machine unity" and cannot be overdone.
But as we Revere the wisdom of our predecessors, we should also note that it is now the age of smartphones. The car is about to get out of gear and into the age of autopilot. How many people can appreciate this "man-machine" masterpiece? How many people are willing to master the masterpieces?
The persistence of traditional technology, in turn, hinders the participation of emerging technologies. One senior automatic control scholar points out that it is hardest to make a smart and capable person work with a smart machine. Human beings, the way of the organic, must twist the two ways together, is likely to just hold each other's hind legs.
Informationization construction technology such as again, now is already very mature, but, this kind of construction method on the tall, a high degree of completion in the infrastructure construction in developed countries, there is no any urgent demand, which in turn is underdeveloped in the infrastructure, the construction scale is big, and there is not enough skilled workers, more can show its power. However, because of the separation of mainstream market and main market, it is not realized that the pioneer market of next-generation technologies should be in developing countries, not developed countries.
So, the world of Chinese engineering machinery industry really, not bring the technology of developed countries to absorb, digest, the distribution center and then make the production with the deflationary force, but by the demands of the development of the area along the 3 billion target market, with China itself as a pioneer in the market, set up a new generation of engineering machinery development base. That's where China is in the global engineering machinery market. The demand of 3 billion people along the road is the real post-market of China's engineering machinery.
Engine and fuel: key issues facing the current Chinese market
Now, the main problem facing Chinese engineering machinery users is the cost of engines and fuel. During a decade of rapid construction, abundant money flows into the engineering construction field, customer demand for Chinese enterprises, China is not what is more suitable for the development of the Chinese market demand models, but hurriedly took out his familiar to machine. It has also forced Chinese companies to follow the mainstream market. During this period, although Chinese customers have also proposed many personalized requirements, it is only improved and will not affect the direction of technological development.
The developed world has already done away with the world's easy oil rights, leaving the emerging world with oil resources that are expensive to exploit. So the emerging world's oil problem is actually much more serious than that of the developed world. In order to develop, emerging countries must adopt a trans-national energy strategy and technological thought than developed countries.
For example; When Japanese companies are solving energy problems, they need to improve their engines and their hydraulic systems. This can solve customers' direct demand for fuel economy and emission, without destroying their industrial chain and technical chain. The improvement is over, and their interests are improved.
But what about Chinese companies? Engine production technology is a technology of oic increase, not the introduction of a few production lines can be fully realized, the more complex engine technology, the higher the cost, its own interests, the more the oppressed; And customers in China also needs to accompany to pay higher operating costs, which will further up the engineering cost, objectively and in force construction planners to cancel or delay a lot of needs but do not need for the construction of the project.
According to the rules of the development of the economy in the past as you can imagine, as long as the world economic recovery, the first price is oil, and, as the country began on April 1, 2016 the implementation of the phase iii emission standard, whether it is engineering machinery manufacturer, or our machine user, the cost of consumption on the engine, will be more and more high. More than 50 percent of the total cost of the engineering machinery industry chain is actually taken away by engine producers and Middle East oil, and without a discount, it can't be delayed a day.
Under such cost pressure, plus party a's construction payment arrears, interest on bank loans, wages of workers, etc., how can others survive on the industrial chain? If we can get the spring of engineering construction, we won't wait for the spring of engineering machinery.
Innovation: solve China's problems in the context of Chinese industry
Now everyone is aware that there is only innovation and there is hope for development. Maybe everyone has a lot of creative dreams, engineering machinery in China's current market environment, truly effective innovation should be: use of the resources of China's most easy to assemble, to solve the problem of China at the moment the most urgent.
The electrification of engineering machinery is an important direction. Since the "eighth five-year plan", China has strongly advocated electric, electric parts are at present in China is the richest in the world, most varieties, the largest capacity, the supply chain is the most perfect state, and the capital market, the social public opinion are also very support the electrification.
In addition, engineering machinery, especially excavators, is theoretically the highest and least expensive machine in all roads and non-road machinery. Generally speaking, the cost of doing the same utility oil is three times as much as electricity, and the more machinery is used, the higher the electric benefit is. On the other hand, if you look at the cost of converting oil to electricity, the biggest weakness of electricity is not to carry, and the more powerful the machine, the higher the cost of carrying electricity. All of the machinery that we are familiar with, including excavators, bulldozers, agricultural machinery, automobiles, buses, etc., are arranged according to these two indicators, as shown in the figure below. The vertical axis is the power consumption of a single machine for one year. The horizontal axis is the mechanical mobility of the machine with its walking distance x speed.
The electric cost and benefit distribution of various roads and non-road machinery
From the picture we also find that a place that has not been taken seriously in the past is the excavator. It should be the most cost-effective and low-cost machine.
And of course electricity is easier to use than engines. But there are so many good engineers in China, the mission of engineers is to make it easy for them to make it convenient. As long as there are reasonable market interests, technology is easy to follow.
Energy transformation is the inevitable trend of construction machinery, the electric is under the background of China's most easy to implement, as long as we are industry people to work together, it's not hard to develop a new generation of engineering machinery, and stimulate the area have a population of 3 billion for the construction of the desire to.